报告详情
Enhancing the reliability of displacement prediction of reservoir landslide through a physics-informed data augmentation framework
编号：45
访问权限：仅限参会人
更新：2025-07-22 15:26:44 浏览：54次
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报告开始：暂无开始时间（Asia/Shanghai）
报告时间：暂无持续时间
所在会场：[暂无会议] [暂无会议段]
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摘要
Accurately predicting landslide displacement remains challenging due to complex movement mechanisms and large uncertainties. Here, we develop a physics-informed data augmentation framework to tackle this challenge. By incorporating external drivers, including rainfall and reservoir water level, we establish quantitative relationships between key aging parameters (e.g., creep and strength parameters) and target indicators (e.g., responses of monitoring point (RMS)) using surrogate models. We use time-series monitoring data to sequentially update the probability distribution of aging parameters. The posterior distributions are used to adaptively and dynamically predict landslide displacement. We find that the temporal evolution of creep parameters closely resembles the observed displacement, exhibiting both a periodic pattern and a long-term growth trend, while the strength parameters show a consistent deterioration over time. These findings offer a mechanistic interpretation of the step-like deformation behavior. The integration of movement mechanisms and observed data not only reveals the evolutionary progress of aging parameters but also improves the reliability of prediction by effectively reducing uncertainties.
关键词
Reservoir landslide; Displacement prediction; Sequential Bayesian updating; Parameter evolution; Physics-informed data augmentation
报告人
Longhou Gan
PHD student Tongji University稿件作者
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重要日期
-
会议日期
08月23日
2025
至08月26日
2025
-
07月31日 2025
初稿截稿日期
-
08月20日 2025
报告提交截止日期
-
08月26日 2025
注册截止日期
主办单位
Southwest Jiaotong University, China (SWJTU)
International Consortium on Geo-disaster Reduction (ICGdR)
UNESCO Chair on Geoenvironmental Disaster Reduction
International Consortium on Geo-disaster Reduction (ICGdR)
UNESCO Chair on Geoenvironmental Disaster Reduction
承办单位
Southwest Jiaotong University, China (SWJTU)
International Consortium on Geo-disaster Reduction (ICGdR)
UNESCO Chair on Geoenvironmental Disaster Reduction
International Consortium on Geo-disaster Reduction (ICGdR)
UNESCO Chair on Geoenvironmental Disaster Reduction
联系方式
- Yufeng Wang
- wa******@swjtu.edu.cn
- +86********
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