报告开始:2025年04月18日 09:56(Asia/Shanghai)
报告时间:1min
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The India-Burma Trough (IBT) is a semi-permanent low-pressure trough over the Bay of Bengal that plays a crucial role in modulating weather and climate over East and South Asia. Various indices have been proposed to quantify IBT strength since 1999, but differences in their definitions and data sources have led to inconsistencies in their representation of IBT variability and its large-scale impacts. This study evaluates the effectiveness of existing IBT indices by recalculating them using a uniform dataset and methodology, aiming to assess their ability to capture IBT dynamics and their relationship with ENSO.Using ERA5 reanalysis data, eight IBT indices were recalculated for the winter seasons from 1980 to 2024. Given the presence of strong linear trends in geopotential height-based indices, likely due to global warming, these trends were removed before further analysis. Hierarchical clustering was applied to classify the indices into two categories: (1) wind-field-based indices (e.g., vorticity), and (2) geopotential height-based indices. A representative index from each category was selected and compared through regression analysis against atmospheric circulation fields (geopotential height, vorticity, vertical velocity, and wind fields), precipitation, and temperature. Additionally, the IBT-ENSO relationship was examined through regression analysis with sea surface temperature (SST).Results indicate that wind-field-based indices better capture the IBT’s dynamic structure in circulation fields compared to geopotential height-based indices. Furthermore, the two index categories exhibit significantly different climate impacts, particularly on temperature and precipitation patterns in East and South Asia. Most notably, regression analysis with SST shows that the IBT-ENSO relationship varies depending on the index used: wind-field-based indices indicate that a strong IBT corresponds to an El Niño-like SST pattern, whereas geopotential height-based indices suggest an association with a La Niña-like pattern. This discrepancy suggests that ENSO influences IBT strength primarily through enhanced local cyclonic curvature rather than broad geopotential height changes, which may not directly reflect IBT intensity.These findings underscore the importance of index selection in IBT-related research. While wind-field-based indices appear to provide a more physically consistent representation of IBT dynamics, uncertainties remain due to the varying methodologies used in defining IBT indices. Further research is needed to refine IBT indices and improve their applicability in climate analysis and forecasting.
04月17日
2025
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2025
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