With the exploitation of terrestrial land resources approaching its limit, aquatic foods, with vast potential for production expansion and relatively low carbon footprints, are considered as future-proof sustainable food sources. Accompanied by advancements in food processing technologies and economic globalization, aquatic foods have transcended from local consumption in waterside communities to the daily diet of a much larger population. In this century, the cross-border trade volume of aquatic foods has more than doubled, reshaping the pattern of aquatic food production. Debates have arisen regarding the exact effect of aquatic food trade on food security, especially considering that many producers have shifted their production towards market-oriented goals rather than subsistence. This study develops a two-stage integrated model to analyze how food security in various countries will be regulated by aquatic food trade in the near future. First, by employing the gravity model that is emerging in econometrical trade analysis, we assess the trends of global aquatic food trade under foreseeable population and economic development trajectories. Second, by focusing on the nutritional components of traded aquatic foods and their roles in the nutritional intake structure of the corresponding population, we assess the vulnerability characteristics of food security to aquatic food trade. Based on the findings of this study, developing tailored production and trade strategies will ensure that the benefits brought by aquatic foods are equitably shared.

aquatic food trade,food security