Landfalling severe typhoons in South China and the ensemble seasonal forecasting of typhoon frequency using machine learning algorithms
编号:648 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2024-12-31 08:24:25 浏览:191次 口头报告

报告开始:2025年01月15日 14:45(Asia/Shanghai)

报告时间:15min

所在会场:[S4] Session 4-Extreme Weather and Climate Events: Observations and Modeling [S4-2] Extreme Weather and Climate Events: Observations and Modeling

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摘要

This study investigates the characteristics of landfalling severe typhoons (LSTYs) in South China (SC), which are defined as typhoons with a 2-minute mean maximum sustained wind ≥ 41.5 m s⁻¹. Since 1949, 13 LSTYs have been recorded in SC, with most undergoing rapid intensification before landfall. These typhoons are categorized based on the intensity of the summer monsoon: weak, moderate, and strong. LSTYs under weak monsoon conditions exhibited the smallest outer size and weakest "warm-wet" core due to a lack of abundant monsoon water vapor, and they rapidly intensified due to favorable offshore ocean warming. In contrast, LSTYs in strong monsoon conditions received poor energy supply from the coastal ocean but feed by the strong monsoon flow. In addition to analyzing the observed LSTY, we also explore an ensemble seasonal forecasting model for predicting typhoon frequency in the western North Pacific using multiple machine learning methods. Results show that mean bias of the MME for TYF is notably smaller than that of the ECMWF's most recent seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5) in the years of 2017‒2023, underscoring the potential of ensemble prediction approach utilizing multiple machine learning algorithms to improve the forecasting skill of TYF over the western North Pacific.

关键词
landfalling severe typhoons, South China, seasonal forecasting, machine learning
报告人
Zhixiang Xiao
Dr. Nanning Normal University

稿件作者
Zhixiang Xiao Nanning Normal University
Cai Yao Guangxi Meteorological Bureau
Ziqian Wang School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University
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重要日期
  • 会议日期

    01月13日

    2025

    01月17日

    2025

  • 09月27日 2024

    初稿截稿日期

  • 01月17日 2025

    注册截止日期

主办单位
State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University
承办单位
State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University
Department of Earth Sciences, National Natural Science Foundation of China
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