The spatial and temporal patterns of biodiversity and distribution provide important indications for ecosystem responses to climate change. Heavily influenced by climate change and anthropogenic disturbances, the Bohai Sea was selected as a case study to measure the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution patterns, habitat suitability, and species-functional diversity of macrofauna in temperate shelf seas. To reveal the responses and indications of dominant species, functional groups and biodiversity indices to climate change, we collected bio-data from 152 sampling stations from 2011 to 2022 in the Bohai Sea., revealing the presence or absence of five representative species, four dominant functional groups, and the macrofaunal communities with high biodiversity indices (i.e., species richness/species diversity/functional diversity), then ensemble species distribution models (ensemble SDMs) were constructed using 13 environmental factors. The models predicted habitat suitability for macrofauna under both present and future climate scenarios. All ensemble models showed good performance. The distribution and biodiversity of macrofauna were heavily influenced by bottom salinity, identified as the predominant environmental factor. The model predictions showed different responses and indications of macrofauna to climate change: ① positive indicators, species richness index, carnivorous feeders, low/high tolerance species, Sternaspis scutata, Moerella iridescens, Protankyra bidentata, and Nemertinea, they will expand distribution range and increase their habitat suitability; ② negative indicators, deposit feeders, Alpheus digitalis will contract their range and decrease their habitat suitability; ③ no obvious indication, the species diversity index and functional diversity index showed no obvious trend. These responses were mainly driven by the differences in thermal and salinity tolerance of macrofauna. It is imperative to analyze the potential distribution and indications of macrofauna in response to climate change in order to develop effective strategies for adaptive management aimed at promoting sustainable conservation and maintaining the function of temperate ecosystems.
 

climate change, macrofauna, distribution, ensemble models, functional traits, biodiversity