The profound impact of global climate warming on marine ecosystems is increasingly evident, particularly in relation to the distribution, abundance, and diversity of fish communities, which have experienced significant negative effects. However, large-scale assessments and predictions of marine diversity-stability relationships (DSRs) remain largely unexplored. This study focuses on the Yellow and Bohai Seas, aiming to assess the current DSR of fish communities and predict changes in this relationship under the influence of global climate warming, as well as its underlying mechanisms. By dividing the study area into multiple 30′ × 30′ grid units, we applied the Dynamic Bioclimate Envelop Model (DBEM) to calculate key ecological parameters such as fish abundance and biomass. The changes in diversity and stability from 1970 to 2060 were analyzed under two scenarios, SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5. Through correlation analysis, linear regression, and model construction, combined with environmental changes such as ocean warming, acidification, hypoxia, and fish geographic migration, we sought to uncover the underlying mechanisms. The results indicate a significant negative DSR in the fish communities of the Yellow and Bohai Seas, and climate change is expected to exacerbate this trend. While diversity per se shows a negative impact on stability, richness, complementarity effect (CE), and selection effect (SE) exhibit significant positive effects on stability. This study provides a reference for the management of biological resources and the sustainable development of marine ecosystems in the Yellow and Bohai Seas.

diversity, stability, DSR