Salinity-effect Strengthens ENSO Forced by Freshwater Flux in Response to Global Warming in the Tropical Pacific within Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project
编号:1196 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2024-10-14 11:02:06 浏览:200次 张贴报告

报告开始:2025年01月14日 21:35(Asia/Shanghai)

报告时间:15min

所在会场:[S65] Session 65-Oceanic-Atmospheric Processes Over the Indian and Western Pacific Oceans [S65-P] Oceanic-Atmospheric Processes over the Indian and Western Pacific Oceans

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摘要
The increase of CO2 emissions resulting from human activities has significantly intensified the global water cycle, leading to an evident impact on ocean physics. However, there is no clear consensus on how to distinguish climate responses to freshwater flux (FWF) forcing during future warming climate. We investigate salinity change and its effect on ENSO in response of FWF forcing due to doubling CO2 emissions using the Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) experiments in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The result reveals an amplification of surface salinity spatial patterns by 7.9% (16±10% K-1) in the tropical Pacific by FWF forcing. Notably, there is a decrease in salinity observed in the Pacific Ocean, which increases east-west contrast of sea surface salinity, and freshens upper-ocean at above 100 m, particularly in the warm pool, leading to enhanced upper-ocean stability. Furthermore, the change of salinity effect makes the mixing layer shallower, the barrier layer thicker, and enhancing the effect of salinity on the upper layer temperature. We further hypothesize that salinity mean state can strengthen variability of the salinity barrier layer in the tropical Pacific, which may increase the likelihood of extreme ENSO events by trapping more heat in the surface ocean in future. Consequently, freshwater flux forcing can increase the amplitude of ENSO interannual variability by 10%, increase ENSO asymmetry by 40%, and lengthen its period. It is suggested under future anthropogenic forcing, more frequent strong El Niño events are anticipated. The FAFMIP experiment will provide information on the sensitivity of the ocean salinity to distribution of the forcing response to global warming, the difference between climate change when a model is undisturbed and when it is forced by CO2 to a specific process in the model.
关键词
salinity,freshwater flux,stratification,global warming,ENSO
报告人
Hai Zhi
Professor Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology

稿件作者
Hai Zhi Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Rong-Hua Zhang Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Xiaokun Wang Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
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重要日期
  • 会议日期

    01月13日

    2025

    01月17日

    2025

  • 09月27日 2024

    初稿截稿日期

  • 01月17日 2025

    注册截止日期

主办单位
State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University
承办单位
State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University
Department of Earth Sciences, National Natural Science Foundation of China
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