791 / 2024-09-19 14:01:25

Entropy method for detecting tipping points in coupled systems

Tipping point;,system sample entropy

Tipping elements^[1] are essential components of the Earth's complex system, and detecting and predicting their potential tipping points is crucial, with significant social implications. Traditional methods, such as variance and lag-1 autocorrelation, often serve as early-warning signals, showing notable increases as tipping points approach. However, the interconnectedness of different tipping elements^[2] may lead to false detection signals through traditional methods. To overcome this challenge, we employ the system sample entropy method^[3] based on statistical analysis for identifying tipping points in various coupled nonlinear models. Our approach shows superior performance compared to traditional methods, and we further apply this method to the Earth’s complex system to detect potential tipping points.

References:

[1] Lenton, T.M. et al. Climate tipping points—too risky to bet against. Nature 575, 592-595 (2019)

[2] Liu, T. et al. Teleconnections among tipping elements in the earth system. Nature Climate Change 13, 67-74 (2023)

[3] Meng, J. et al. Complexity-based approach for El Nino magnitude forecasting before the spring predictability barrier. PNAS 117, 177-183 (2020)