138 / 2023-06-29 11:17:12

An emergency decision-making method for coal spontaneous combustion based on improved prospect theory

spontaneous combustion; emergency decision-making; prospect theory; entropy; risk preference

It is well known that coal spontaneous combustion remains one of the serious disasters in coal mines, and which will produce a large amount of CO, CO₂, H₂S, SO₂ and other harmful gases, seriously pollutes the air and environment. Once coal spontaneous combustion occurs, a reasonable and effective emergency response plan can avoid the expansion of the accident and minimize accident losses. But there is few research on emergency decision-making of emergency response plan for coal spontaneous combustion. In response to the incomplete information in the early stages of coal spontaneous combustion and the impact of decision makers' risk preference on decision-making, this paper proposed an emergency decision-making method for coal spontaneous combustion that combined grey correlation degree and TOPSIS with the improved prospect theory. Firstly, a normalized weighted evaluation matrix for the emergency response plan of coal spontaneous combustion was established, and the entropy method was used to calculate the index weights. Then, considering the decision makers’ imperfect rationality and different individual risk preference, the decision makers are divided into risk appetite type, risk neutral type and risk averse type, and the risk coefficients were determined according to different types of decision makers. On this basis, matrix of gains and losses were established from reference points based on the positive and negative ideal solutions, and the grey correlation degree was introduced to calculate the positive and negative prospect value. Furthermore, calculated the prospect value of each emergency response plan based on the different types of decision makers, respectively, and the entropy method was used to calculate the weights of decision-makers with different risk preference. Thus, obtained the comprehensive prospect value of each emergency response plan, and the ranked comprehensive prospect value was used to determine the optimal emergency response plan. Finally, a case study and a comparative analysis with representative methods were conducted to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results showed that the proposed method has certain advantages in accuracy and rationality.