Aiming at the current situation of frequent traffic accidents in the exit area of interchange, the relevant factors influencing traffic safety in the exit area of interchange were studied systematically by investigating and collecting relevant road traffic conditions and traffic accident data in the exit area of the existing expressway interchange. Through multivariate variance analysis of the main influencing factors of interchange exit traffic safety, the control variables with significant interaction effects were eliminated and merged, and the adjusted model variables were determined as the main line traffic volume, ramp diversion traffic volume and exit identification sight distance. On this basis, a multivariable linear regression traffic accident prediction model for interchange exit area is established. The accident prediction model is checked and validated by the traffic accident level of 14 interchange exit areas within the scope of Hang Xinjing Expressway (G60N). The results show that the relative error between the predicted and actual values of traffic accidents in the interchange exit area is small, and the standard deviation (σ) is 4.91%. The accuracy and applicability of the traffic accident prediction model in the exit area of interchange meet the requirement, which can provide theoretical reference and technical support for the prediction, evaluation and analysis of the accident variation regularities in the exit area of interchange.

CICTP