1111 / 2019-05-20 21:36:12

Active Distribution Network Risk Assessment with Credibility

Active distribution network,Credibility,Risk assessment,Uncertainty factor

The penetration rate of distributed generation in distribution networks is getting higher and higher, the trend is bidirectional, and the management mode is active, which make the structure of active distribution network is more complicated and the uncertainty factor increases. The randomness of Monte Carlo sampling also reduces the accuracy of the results. This paper considers the uncertainty of the evaluation results and the uncertainty of power supply and load sampling, and establishes a model to propose a risk assessment method for active distribution network considering credibility. This paper evaluates the operational risk of the actual distribution network in a certain area of Jiangsu Province, compares the real-time credibility and the set credibility, and judges whether the risk assessment result of the distribution network tends to converge. The results show that the reliability and accuracy of the active distribution network risk assessment method with credibility are greatly improved.